Ukraine: Stuck In The Center Of The Nuclear Deterrence Loophole
When looking at the crisis regarding Ukraine and Russia many aspects of this conflict still remain unsure. No one knows how or when this terrible conflict will end. The one thing that does seem to be consistent is that this war is pushing every theory since the Cold War to the brink. It seems that right now we are the closest to World War Three or a nuclear war since the Cuban Missile Crisis, though we are not that close. When looking at game theory it seems that the West and Russia seem to be in gearing up for some sort of game of chicken. The west and Russia have had mutually assured destruction for almost 80 years and many believe that having nuclear weapons would be a deterrence, but it seems right now it could bring us more destruction than anything we have ever seen before.
Right now the United States is walking on eggshells with its hands tied when it comes to the Russian situation. At this point, sanctions have been put in place that is dealing extreme damage to the Russian economy and its people, but that is a slow bleed and is not stopping Russia from attacking Ukraine. Currently, it seems nothing more can be done, even as President Zelensky asks NATO for a No-Fly Zone, which continues to be shut down. Ultimately the west must sit back and watch Ukraine either defend itself or slowly bend to Vladamir Putin. This conflict is putting everything to the test. Having nuclear weapons was supposed to make the world safer by preventing conflict. But one major piece seems to be overlooked.
Nuclear Deterrence works between two nations that have nuclear weapons, which seems apparent. These countries with nuclear weapons have more power and ultimately have the capability to deal significant damage, so deterrence between them works. But what it does not do, and possibly may inhibit is the ability for a country to respond. Nuclear Deterrence seems to have worked in most regards, but it overlooked the issue that would arise when a nuclear nation attacks one without nuclear weapons, which actually prevents another, specifically nuclear nation from responding. If Russia is successful in this escapade then it can uproot the entire system of nuclear deterrence. Any nuclear nation would see that they will face no military consequences for attacking a non-nuclear nation. Yes, they might get economic sanctions but for nations with nuclear weapons, it will hurt but will not necessarily be the downfall. This invasion uproots the entire notion of the past 80 years in which nuclear weapons would make the world safer.
The nullification of many political theories regarding nuclear deterrence should not come as a total shock. This scenario of a nuclear nation attacking a non-nuclear nation is not new, it is just part of a new perspective now. America has been involved in countless wars post World War Two with weaker nations. The difference now is that Russia is considered the enemy when they do it. Putin saw the writings on the wall when looking at the history of the United States seeing that he can get away with invading a nation because he is untouchable by any power that can actually take him on. The annexation of Crimea was an omen of what was to come for Ukraine, and the slap of the wrist Russia received for that made it clear that it could take the rest of the country.
I hope for the best for Ukraine and its people but it does seem that this problem was actually caused by the United States. The US found the loophole in nuclear deterrence decades ago, and Russia is just using it now. Unfortunately for them, they are on the wrong side of history and have been for quite some time so they will be painted as the true enemy and face real consequences for doing the same the US did. It will be interesting to see how the remainder of this invasion plays out, but Putin is a smart man and knows the US is unable to act, and regrettably, it seems that Ukraine will eventually fall, whether it is in a week, a month or a year. In the end, this is a contemporary example of game theory, and the famous saying is “don’t hate the player, hate the game”, in this regard I will gladly hate the player but do recognize this game has been going on for years, and Putin is just beginning to play it like his enemies.
Micheal, I found your blog post extremely insightful and interesting. I agree that the idea of nuclear deterrence only works for the stronger and more stable countries who are powerful enough to hold nuclear weapons. It is obvious that weaker, developing countries do not hold the same protection. As well because of the threat of a world war 3 the US cannot really do more than place sanctions, which can only help Ukraine so much. I have never thought about how the US has been involved in tactics similar to Russians in Ukraine. As much as I condemn Putin for his actions, it is interesting to see how you parallel him to the US
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